The high amount of money supply and low-interest rate all over the world has encouraged people to take speculative bets. The Equity market (particularly meme stock, SPAC, IPO) and Crypto have recorded a new high. The inflation is inching upward. This is forcing the Central Banks to consider increasing interest rates to keep inflation in check. The increase in interest rate may slow the economy and adversely impact the Equity market performance. Is this time for mean reversion?
The governments and Central banks have pumped in ~20 trillion dollars of fiscal and monetary stimulus since the start of the pandemic to soften the impact on the economy. There is too much money in the system which is causing a spike in inflation. The US annual inflation rate reached 7% in December, a fresh high since June 1982. The UK’s CPI (Consumer Prices Index) December reading rose to 5.4%, the highest inflation rate recorded since 1992. India’s December CPI reading rose to 5.59% against the RBI target of 4%.
Central Banks have taken note of it and are in the process of reducing the money supply in the system. In December, the Bank of England unexpectedly increased the interest rate for the first time in 3 years amid growing concern over inflation, despite the rapid rise of the Omicron virus. The US Fed is hastening the tapering program and is planning to wind down its $120 billion programs by reducing the monthly stimulus by $30 billion every month. The market is expecting Fed to increase the interest rate 3-4 times this year. RBI in India in their December review has kept the interest rate unchanged to support the growth but the high inflation rate may nudge them to reverse the change in the interest rate cycle soon.
This may be an interesting time particularly for those who have seen their investment swell in this bull market to revisit their investment strategy and protect their gain. If you thought that the US market can continue to repeat the performance of the recent years, it is time to be circumspect. If you thought that the FANG stock will continue to defy the gravity to reach newer market cap heights, note that they are priced for perfection and one bad news can take them down. The case in point is the recent poor result from Netflix. If you thought that the valuation of your company’s RSU can keep growing at a scorching pace, it is time for you to become rational. What goes up at a fast pace will come down at the same pace. Manage your concentration risk and protect the windfall. If you are investing in IPO hoping that you can make a quick listing gain without bothering about valuation, be cautious as investors are becoming more discerning in choosing earning over sales as valuation criteria. If you have invested your hard-earned money in crypto hoping to make quick money you may be disappointed as easy money may have already been made.
By nature, we humans are greedy. We tend to believe that the good gains will last forever. This wishful thinking pushes us to take speculative decisions to a point where the investment becomes too risky and unworthy. Has the pendulum moved too far? Is this time for the mean reversion, only time will tell?
The writer is a SEBI Registered Adviser and Founder of FinMyn (https://finmyn.com). He provides Fee-Only Financial Planning and Investment Advisory services.
He has advised many clients in India, the US, Europe, the Middle East, South East Asia and Australia.
To know more about him, click on https://finmyn.com/about/.